研究 数据和协作为善

2019年6月27日 澳博官方网站app研究所 held its second annual Conference on Economic 研究. 法雷尔, 研究所的总裁兼首席执行官, 打开解释, 今天和我们在一起, 我们有学者, 智库领袖, 政策制定者, 和实践者, 这很好地说明了我们的使命:不仅仅是利用我们对澳博官方网站app行政数据的非凡访问权限进行开创性的研究, 但也要建立人际网络和社区，让人们能够相互协作，帮助做出更好的决策. 这才是我们最关心的.”

在华盛顿举行.C., 为期一天的会议包括八个会议，重点讨论研究和政策的前沿问题: the financial health and well-being of cities and local communities, 企业, families, markets，和 经济 作为一个整体.

开幕式全体会议强调了城市作为一个系统的作用，以及研究人员和政策制定者看待城市面临的挑战的不同方式. In discussing economic outcomes of cities and local communities, 瑞秋Meltzer, Associate Professor of Urban Policy at 新学派, described localized effects of the economic shock of superstorm Sandy in 2012. 她和她的同事们发现，社区零售企业抵御冲击的能力较弱，小型和独立的企业最容易受到冲击. 在总, local losses at the neighborhood level could affect municipal fiscal health for the entire city. “These losses impact neighborhoods: loss of services, 企业主失去生计, 街道活动受到影响，这可能会影响犯罪或对社区产生一般环境影响. But there are also implications for the city at large,” Meltzer said. “这是制定政策的地方. So it’s important to realize that even though these shocks are concentrated in particular neighborhoods, 这对整个城市都有影响.”

The importance of small business to cities and local communities, 还有宏观经济, was echoed in a separate panel discussion on the impact of small business finance on household wealth. 尽管许多关于小企业的研究都集中在企业的一个子集上(那些高增长的企业), most 企业 in the sector are very small and, 值得注意的是, 是经济的重要贡献者吗. 布莱恩Headd他是美国经济学家.S. 小企业管理局, 指出,, “Business ownership is increasingly important to households. Small business should be interjected more into the big picture, more into the macro discussion.”

彼得•罗伯茨 of 埃默里大学 added that neighborhood small 企业 create vibrant communities, which isn’t always measured in macro statistics. 在讨论中，他的研究集中在贫困问题上, 比赛, 以及附近的小企业, 罗伯茨阐述, “If you imagine cleaving the world into the wealthiest urban residential zip codes and the poorest, 由贫困率定义, 你的微音很明显, small, 中型企业差距. 有31个.4% fewer micro企业 per capita in our poorest neighborhoods.”

管理收入波动的能力对家庭财务健康也越来越重要, 或者收入和支出的变化. 研究这些现金流动态一直是该研究所工作的核心，我们的研究表明，许多美国家庭没有现金缓冲，他们需要在一个月里承受收入损失和意外支出. 一个关键问题是如何衡量收入波动性, 通过什么数据集, in order to better understand the extent to which families are able to smooth their income spikes and dips. “传统观点认为，只有收入分配中较低的部分才难以平顺短暂的冲击,” 罗伯特·莫菲特 约翰霍普金斯大学. “I think that’s being challenged now and should be brought out. Gross volatility is very important and used to measure instability in various populations, 人口群体, 收入水平, 但同样重要的是，有多少波动是“暂时性的”，有多少是“永久性的”，或者介于两者之间?”

In a separate panel discussing the Online Platform Economy and the future of work, 雪莱管家, 阿斯彭研究所的研究经理, 解释, “Non-standard work arrangements are getting increased attention. 事实证明，这类工作极其难以准确衡量，其对经济和工人的影响也同样不透明.” The pace of technological change has also influenced uncertainty around the future of work, 在线平台经济带来的临时工作增加了收入波动的另一个因素. While alternative work arrangements contribute to overall income volatility, 他们提供的额外收入通常用于补充传统的劳动收入和管理负面收入冲击.

深入研究家庭支出和债务, 学生贷款小组讨论的重点是了解与学生贷款支付相关的现金流动态，以及这些支付如何适应家庭更大的财务生活. 丹尼尔Herbst of the 亚利桑那大学 指出, “Data on student loan repayment, especially at a high-frequency or monthly level has been scarce. 这使我们无法对借款人偿还学生贷款的情况有一个描述性的了解.” One way that households have managed student debt is through income driven repayment (IDR) plans, which limit a monthly loan payment to between 10-15 percent of income. “IDR是朝着正确方向迈出的一大步,赫布斯特说, “但我们如何填补因缺乏可用的人力资本投资金融工具而造成的缺口?”

In managing household income and consumption volatility, 家庭拥有现金缓冲的重要性对于支付抵押贷款和避免违约也是适用的. 在我们的会议上，一份最新发布的研究所报告显示，流动性是抵押贷款违约的一个更有用的预测指标，而不是房屋净值水平, 支付负担, 或者收入水平. Kanav巴, Director of 金融市场 研究 at the 研究所, 解释, “依赖于债务收入比门槛的抵押贷款承销标准可能不是减少抵押贷款违约的最有效方法，因为它们无法解释借款人未来收入的波动或他们承受这种波动的能力. 然而, 拥有少量抵押贷款支付等价物的房主违约率远低于没有流动性的房主.该小组的其他发言还讨论了旨在衡量借款人偿还抵押贷款能力的抵押贷款承销标准的影响.

以金融市场研究为重点的会议也反映了政策对全球经济的影响. 小组成员讨论了涉及流动性较差的固定收益证券的流动性和套利之间的关系, and whether Federal Reserve Board policy responds to the stock market rather than economic data. The panel also presented research on how post-crisis financial regulation changed swaps market structure, and how the timing of central bank announcements affect the foreign exchange market.

把今天的主题结合起来, we concluded by discussing the ways organizations are using data and how we can work collaboratively. “We’re moving through distinct eras in the data world, 隔壁是一栋楼, 在这个世界里，我们可以访问多个数据源，并将它们混合在一起，以创建新的数据集和分析模型.” 鲍勃·林, provost of 乔治敦大学, surmised on our closing panel. It will be important to address many undecided questions around data-sharing, 透明度, 以及统计模型的不确定性, among other technical and non-technical concerns that accompany this new era of the data world.

但仍有一些总体目标可以将公共和私营部门联合起来，并为如何协作和有效利用当前的数据环境提供指导. “The main goals here are to reduce reactive responses and use data to inform preemptive actions,小组成员说 甘尼Rayid 他是芝加哥大学的教授. “人 who need help the most may get left behind in the pursuit of efficiency.”

The panel highlighted multiple ways we can work together to use these data more proactively. By forging transparent partnerships between the private and public sector, working together to create fewer silos between researchers, 从业人员, 和政府, we can ensure equity while using big data to make a tangible impact on society.

We thank all of the presenters and attendees who contributed to these important discussions. 我们期待继续开展合作与对话，分享我们独特的数据视角，帮助应对一些最紧迫的经济挑战.