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RESEARCH 澳博体育app

大数据证据

即使在强劲的宏观经济条件下, 家庭经历着高度的收入波动,这对幸福有着重要的影响. Previous JPMorgan Chase Institute research has shown that families cut consumption on everyday necessities when they experience job loss, 推迟医疗保健和耐用品的支出,直到他们的退税到来. 一个关键原因是它们的流动现金缓冲不足. Families with limited liquid assets are dramatically less likely to smooth consumption in the face of income fluctuations.

It stands to reason then that racial gaps in liquid assets and wealth could result in racial differences in consumption smoothing. Longstanding gaps in income and wealth between White families and Black and Hispanic families have been well documented and have only grown following the Great Recession. 这些种族差距在经济环境中的下游后果是什么, 尤其是当家庭收入逐日、逐月波动的时候?

这份报告首次对流动资产的种族差异进行了高频分析, 实得收入, and families’ consumption response to income volatility from the vantage point of a novel de-identified data source: administrative banking data paired with self-reported race information. We matched Chase banking records with 2018 voter registration records in the states that had Chase branches in 2018 and that, 根据投票权法案, 在选民登记过程中收集种族信息.

这个匹配产生了1的大样本.8 million families for whom we observe the race of the primary account holder along with other demographic characteristics, 高频, 综合收益观, spending, 流动资产. 这个样本大致代表了黑人各自的收入分配, Hispanic, and White registered voters nationally and provides a reliable window into racial gaps in financial outcomes compared to benchmarks.

 

有了这个新的数据资产,我们在本报告中回答了三个关键问题. First, 黑人的税后收入和流动资产的种族差距有多大, Hispanic, 以及在考虑到其他人口因素后,它们在多大程度上持续存在? 其次,在家庭的消费平滑度上是否存在种族差异? We examine changes in everyday spending in response to two different sources of income volatility: involuntary job loss identified through the receipt of unemployment insurance benefits, a negative cash-flow event; and the arrival of a tax refund, 正现金流事件. Third, to what extent do racial gaps in liquid and financial asset buffers account for racial differences in families’ consumption response to job loss and tax refunds?

找到一个: Median Black and Hispanic families earn roughly 70 cents in 实得收入 for every dollar earned by White families, 在收入较高和年龄较大的账户持有人中,种族收入差距最大.

我们用黑人和西班牙裔家庭的实得收入之比来衡量种族差距, 分别, 相对于白人家庭, 其中race指的是主帐户持有人的种族. 考虑到这些指标以比率表示,比率为1.0代表平等,较低的比率代表较大的种族差距.

发现二: 流动资产的种族差距是实得收入差距的两倍. 这种情况在各个收入阶层都存在,在65岁以上人群中最为严重.

发现三: 与白人男性相比,黑人女性在实得收入和流动资产方面的差距最大, 但男性的种族差异比女性更大.

发现四: 跨地域, 拉美裔家庭的财务状况差异最大, 而黑人家庭的经济状况差异最小. 路易斯安那州的黑人和白人在财务结果上的差距最大, 而西班牙裔和白人之间的差距在佛罗里达州最大.

发现五: 在非自愿失业之后, 与白人家庭相比,黑人和西班牙裔家庭削减日常开支的幅度更大, 这些差异可以用流动资产和金融资产缓冲方面的种族差异来解释.

发现六: 收到退税后, 黑人和西班牙裔家庭比白人家庭增加的支出更多, 这些差异可以用流动资产和金融资产缓冲方面的种族差异来解释.

总之, 我们发现,在实得收入和流动资产方面存在巨大的种族差异,这种差异在不同年龄的人群中持续存在, income, gender, 和地理. The racial gap in liquid assets makes Black and Hispanic families more vulnerable to income fluctuations. Families with lower liquid asset buffers—disproportionately Black and Hispanic families—cut their consumption to a greater extent when they experience involuntary job loss and increase their consumption to a greater extent when they receive a tax refund. However, racial gaps in consumption smoothing disappear when we account for the racial gaps in liquid and financial asset buffers.

These findings have important implications for public policy and the distributional impacts of policy interventions. They raise broader questions about how to reduce financial volatility and increase liquid assets for low-income families and, 重要的是, 解决造成收入和资产上种族差距的结构性因素.

努力减少收入波动, 尤其是低收入家庭, may include expanding unemployment insurance benefits and ensuring access to workplace benefits and protections such as paid sick and family leave and a predictable work schedule. 它们还可能包括在整个纳税年度分配税收抵免和预扣税.

此外,我们必须考虑帮助家庭管理金融波动的方法. 我们估计流动资产缓冲大约为5美元,000 to $6,000—as a form of “private insurance”—might enable Black and Hispanic families to sustain their typical consumption levels through a job loss or major cash-flow event. 这比1美元要多得多,000 to $1,是我们样本中黑人和西班牙裔家庭的中位数. 因此,一个关键问题是如何支持家庭建立这些流动资产.

Policies and programs that boost income and address the underlying challenges Black and Hispanic families face within the labor market could help to close racial gaps in income in the short-run. 这些措施可能包括提高最低工资, 加强劳动所得税抵免, 投资职业培训项目, 减少有犯罪背景的人的就业障碍.

消除流动资产方面的种族差距, 这个要大得多, 我们还需要更强有力的计划, policies, and innovations to both reduce expenses that disproportionately burden Black and Hispanic families and promote asset building among low-income families. 这些措施可能包括建造住房的努力, 高质量的儿童保育, and higher education more affordable as well as employer- and government-sponsored supports for asset building.

私人, nonprofit, 作为政策制定者,政府部门都可以发挥重要作用, 服务提供商, 雇主也在缩小收入和财富方面的种族差距. Our research shows the importance of disaggregating economic and financial statistics by race and measuring these statistics at a high frequency. Doing so can help shed light on the factors that contribute to racial differences in financial outcomes and instruct us on how to design more efficient and equitable policies.

 

Authors:

戴安娜·法雷尔:澳博官方网站app研究所,总裁 & CEO

菲奥娜·格雷格:澳博官方网站app研究所消费者研究部主任

克里斯·惠特:澳博官方网站app研究所商业研究部主任

Max Liebeskind:澳博官方网站app研究所,副研究员

彼得·加农:芝加哥大学哈里斯公共政策学院助理教授

达蒙·琼斯:芝加哥大学哈里斯公共政策学院副教授

Pascal Noel: Neubauer Family Assistant Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business